Market sentiment

US Politics

Elections, policy and leadership in the United States.

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

0.8%

↑0.6% this week$44.9M · 1 Platform

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

1.4%

↑1.3% this week$9.8M · 2 Platforms

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

28%

↑12.6% this week$14.5M · 2 Platforms

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

2.2%

↑0.3% this week$27.6M · 1 Platform

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

1.5%

↓1.0% this week$36.0M · 1 Platform

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

2.2%

↑0.3% this week$34.5M · 1 Platform

Trump out as President before 2027?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

3.7%

↓0.6% this week$14.2M · 1 Platform

Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

3.6%

↑1.4% this week$11.9M · 2 Platforms

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

1.8%

↑0.1% this week$8.5M · 1 Platform

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

33.6%

↓4.6% this week$16.6M · 2 Platforms

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

16.6%

↓1.6% this week$18.3M · 2 Platforms

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

14.5%

↓1.5% this week$15.8M · 2 Platforms

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Politics · Ends Nov 8, 2028

19.2%

↑1.7% this week$11.4M · 2 Platforms

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Politics · Ends Apr 19, 2027

16.1%

↑0.5% this week$6.7M · 1 Platform

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Politics · Ends Apr 19, 2027

42.2%

↓0.8% this week$5.0M · 2 Platforms

Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

4.5%

↓17.5% this week$577K · 1 Platform

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

1.2%

↓0.4% this week$592K · 1 Platform

Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

2.1%

↑0.2% this week$1.1M · 1 Platform

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

30%

↓12.5% this week$190K · 1 Platform

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

55%

↑20.0% this week$174K · 1 Platform

Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?

Politics · Ends May 2, 2027

75%

↑10.5% this week$56K · 1 Platform

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

87%

↑6.5% this week$422K · 1 Platform

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

2.6%

↓4.6% this week$145K · 1 Platform

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

Politics · Ends Jan 1, 2027

87.5%

↓0.5% this week$69K · 1 Platform

Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Politics · Ends Oct 25, 2027

14.7%

↓0.9% this week$124K · 1 Platform

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

40.5%

↓20.0% this week$59K · 1 Platform

How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? — 192 or fewer

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms? — 47 or fewer

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in Maine's 2nd District? — Republican

Politics · No fixed end date

63.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

66%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in North Carolina's 1st District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in New York's 4th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in New York's 17th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in Arizona's 1st District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in Arizona's 6th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

96%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House election in Colorado's 8th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Who will be the next Supreme Court nominee? — Andrew Oldham

Politics · No fixed end date

15%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? — Democratic (Peltola)

Politics · No fixed end date

94.5%

↑2.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 119th Congress?

Politics · No fixed end date

92.5%

↑8.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Chuck Schumer remain the Democratic Leader through the 119th Congress?

Politics · No fixed end date

94%

↑7.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which office will AOC announce a run for by the end of 2027? — President

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

56%

↑1.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Mississippi? — Democratic (Colom)

Politics · No fixed end date

96.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump leave office early?

Politics · No fixed end date

36.5%

↓11.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

When will the House impeach Trump again? — 1/1/27 -6/30/27

Politics · No fixed end date

59%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many vetoes will Trump issue in 2026? — 0 vetoes

Politics · Ends Dec 31

70.5%

↑3.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Congress override a veto in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2026?

Politics · No fixed end date

↓6.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump visit Greenland in 2026?

Politics · No fixed end date

4.5%

↓2.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many tie-breaking Senate votes will JD Vance cast in 2026? — 2 votes

Politics · No fixed end date

41%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

3.5%

↓11.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

71%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Prince Andrew testify publicly before Congress in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Stephen A. Smith announce a run for president before 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

17.5%

↓16.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election? — Dem. House & Senate

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms? — ≥54 and ≥248

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Rubio and Vance both announce a run for President before 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

56.5%

↑19.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which of these Democratic candidates will announce a 2028 POTUS run first? — Andy Beshear

Politics · No fixed end date

25%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President before 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

79%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Tucker Carlson announce a run for President before 2028?

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

23.5%

↓22.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

10%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Who will win the Republican nomination in the LA-05 House primary? — Michael Echols

Politics · No fixed end date

48%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Who will win the 2028 Republican vice presidential nomination? — Marco Rubio

Politics · No fixed end date

14%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund begin payouts this year?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

5.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will the Senate eliminate the legislative filibuster in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

5.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will there be another Senate vacancy in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

97%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Trump declare a national emergency by year-end?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

56%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will a woman be elected US president in 2028?

Politics · No fixed end date

20%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will a woman be elected US vice president in 2028?

Politics · No fixed end date

19.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will a woman win the 2028 Republican vice presidential nomination?

Politics · No fixed end date

13%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will a woman win the 2028 Democratic vice presidential nomination?

Politics · No fixed end date

57.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which 2026 Senate race will be the closest? — Alaska

Politics · No fixed end date

88.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many articles of impeachment of Trump will the House pass in 2027? — 3

Politics · Ends Dec 31, 2027

54.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which 2026 race will be the tipping point for Senate control? — Ohio

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑79.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Supreme Court grant certiorari in a sports prediction market case in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Fetterman leave the Democratic Party by June 30?

Politics · Ends Jun 30, 2027

24.5%

↓3.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Army Secretary? — Marc Andersen

Politics · No fixed end date

51%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Michigan's 10th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Senate Judiciary Committee vote to subpoena Donald Trump, Jr. in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

26.5%

↓46.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Michigan's 4th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

46.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in California's 13th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in California's 48th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in New York's 3rd District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Virginia's 1st District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Senate race? — James Talarico, ≥ 8%

Politics · No fixed end date

98%

↓1.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Michigan Senate race? — Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8%

Politics · No fixed end date

85.5%

↑41.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Larger margin of victory: Texas Senate or Maine Senate? — Texas Senate race

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Maine Senate race? — Troy Jackson, 4-6%

Politics · No fixed end date

72%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Larger margin of victory: Texas Senate or Texas Governor? — Texas Senate race

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many Senate races will be won by less than 1%? — 1

Politics · No fixed end date

62%

↓25.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

How many Senate seats will Democrats control after the 2026 midterms? — 56 or more

Politics · No fixed end date

92.5%

↓6.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Larger margin of victory: Ohio Senate or Ohio Governor? — Ohio Governor race

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election? — Andrey Gyurov

Politics · No fixed end date

53%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Democrats sweep the Midwest Senate races?

Politics · No fixed end date

98%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Democrats win any "reach" Senate races?

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

11.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race? — Annie Andrews, ≥ 4%

Politics · No fixed end date

68.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will be the margin of victory in the 2026 Kansas Senate race? — Adam Hamilton, 3-6%

Politics · No fixed end date

51%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Trump's DDHQ job approval rating on Nov. 6? — 38.6% to 38.9%

Politics · Ends Nov 6

30.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Will Haley Stevens leave the Democratic Party by Dec 31?

Politics · Ends Dec 31

32.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Nov. 11? — 37.1% or lower

Politics · Ends Nov 11

34.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in North Carolina's 3rd District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Arizona's 2nd District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in California's 23rd District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Washington's 5th District? — Democratic

Politics · No fixed end date

99%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform

Which party will win the 2026 US House race in Colorado's 3rd District? — Republican

Politics · No fixed end date

50.5%

↑0.0% this week$0 · 1 Platform