Politics
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
1.6%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.3% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 1.6% probability of this happening.
Current probability
1.6%
24h
-0.2%
7d
-0.3%
volume
$553K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi