Politics
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
7.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑4.3% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 7.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
7.7%
24h
-1.4%
7d
+4.3%
volume
$190K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi