World
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
67.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓3.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 67.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
67.5%
24h
-2.5%
7d
-3.5%
volume
$58K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi