World
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
71%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑23.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 71% probability of this happening.
Current probability
71%
24h
-1%
7d
+23%
volume
$59K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi