World
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.3% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
5%
24h
0%
7d
+0.3%
volume
$83K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi