World
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
4.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.1% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 4.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
4.5%
24h
+1.5%
7d
+2.1%
volume
$872K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi