World
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
2.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.4% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 2.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
2.1%
24h
0%
7d
+0.4%
volume
$262K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi