World
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
2.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 2.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
2.7%
24h
+0.2%
7d
+0.2%
volume
$1.4M
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi