Politics
Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?
0.9%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓34.6% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 0.9% probability of this happening.
Current probability
0.9%
24h
-30.6%
7d
-34.6%
volume
$90K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi