Politics
Will the Republican Party win the TX-26 House seat?
96.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.4% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 96.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
96.8%
24h
+2.5%
7d
-0.4%
volume
$51K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi