Politics
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?
47%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓12.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 47% probability of this happening.
Current probability
47%
24h
-7%
7d
-12.5%
volume
$54K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi