Politics
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
72%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 72% probability of this happening.
Current probability
72%
24h
-2.5%
7d
-0.5%
volume
$55K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi