Politics
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
45.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓7.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 45.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
45.5%
24h
+2%
7d
-7.5%
volume
$59K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi