World
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
33%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑6.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 33% probability of this happening.
Current probability
33%
24h
+5.5%
7d
+6%
volume
$54K
Closing date
Apr 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi