Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?
5.1%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.8% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 5.1% probability of this happening.
Current probability
5.1%
24h
-0.4%
7d
-0.8%
volume
$91K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi