Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?
58%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 58% probability of this happening.
Current probability
58%
24h
-2%
7d
+3.5%
volume
$54K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi