Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?
4.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑1.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 4.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
4.7%
24h
+0.7%
7d
+1.2%
volume
$56K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi