Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?
97.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑16.3% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 97.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
97.8%
24h
+9.8%
7d
+16.3%
volume
$82K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi