Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?
4.3%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓11.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 4.3% probability of this happening.
Current probability
4.3%
24h
-11.7%
7d
-11.2%
volume
$65K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi