Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
44%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑21.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 44% probability of this happening.
Current probability
44%
24h
+19%
7d
+21.5%
volume
$55K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi