Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
86.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑5.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 86.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
86.5%
24h
+2.5%
7d
+5%
volume
$52K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi