Politics
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?
20%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 20% probability of this happening.
Current probability
20%
24h
+1.5%
7d
+2.5%
volume
$51K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi