Politics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?

Name: Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
Creator: Predly
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

33.5%

Market thinks YES

Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.

↑11.5% this week

30 days agoToday

Why did this change?

Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.

Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 33.5% probability of this happening.

Current probability

33.5%

24h

+11.5%

volume

$50K

Closing date

Nov 4, 2026

Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi