World
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?
11.6%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.7% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 11.6% probability of this happening.
Current probability
11.6%
24h
-2%
7d
-0.7%
volume
$52K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi