World
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
42%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑22.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 42% probability of this happening.
Current probability
42%
24h
+24.5%
7d
+22%
volume
$53K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi