World
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
17%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓9.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 17% probability of this happening.
Current probability
17%
24h
-6.5%
7d
-9%
volume
$63K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi