World
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
32.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.1% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 32.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
32.7%
24h
-2.1%
7d
+2.1%
volume
$52K
Closing date
Mar 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi