World
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
39%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑18.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 39% probability of this happening.
Current probability
39%
24h
+3.5%
7d
+18%
volume
$203K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi