Politics

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Name: Will National Party Win The Most Seats In The New Zealand House Of Representativ
Creator: Predly
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

66%

Market thinks YES

Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.

↑8.5% this week

30 days agoToday

Why did this change?

Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.

Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 66% probability of this happening.

Current probability

66%

24h

+5%

+8.5%

volume

$52K

Closing date

Nov 8, 2026

Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi