World
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
93%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑66.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 93% probability of this happening.
Current probability
93%
24h
+36%
7d
+66.5%
volume
$55K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi