Politics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Name: Will Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva Win Brazil Gadi Eizenkot Become Israeli Pm And De
Creator: Predly
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

21.1%

Market thinks YES

Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.

↑11.9% this week

30 days agoToday

Why did this change?

Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.

Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 21.1% probability of this happening.

Current probability

21.1%

24h

-23%

+11.9%

volume

$50K

Closing date

Nov 5, 2026

Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi