World
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
6.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓19.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 6.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
6.5%
24h
-6%
7d
-19%
volume
$85K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi