Politics

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Name: Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Creator: Predly
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

34%

Market thinks YES

Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.

↓2.5% this week

30 days agoToday

Why did this change?

Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.

Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 34% probability of this happening.

Current probability

34%

24h

+6%

-2.5%

volume

$51K

Closing date

Nov 8, 2026

Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi