Politics
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓0.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 4.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
4.8%
24h
-0.4%
7d
-0.2%
volume
$10.5M
Closing date
Nov 8, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi