Politics
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
13.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 13.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
13.5%
24h
+1%
7d
+2%
volume
$3.4M
Closing date
Apr 19, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi