Politics
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
4.2%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.8% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 4.2% probability of this happening.
Current probability
4.2%
24h
-1.9%
7d
+2.8%
volume
$211K
Closing date
Oct 25, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi