World
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
3.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.6% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 3.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
3.8%
24h
+0.9%
7d
+0.6%
volume
$51K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi