World
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
0.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.1% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 0.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
0.7%
24h
-0.1%
7d
+0.1%
volume
$83K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi