World
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
0.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓1.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 0.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
0.8%
24h
-0.5%
7d
-1.5%
volume
$75K
Closing date
Nov 1, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi