Politics
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?
42.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↓21.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 42.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
42.5%
24h
-3.5%
7d
-21.5%
volume
$56K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi