Politics
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 0.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
0.7%
24h
+0.5%
7d
+0.5%
volume
$32.0M
Closing date
Nov 8, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi