Politics
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
9%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 9% probability of this happening.
Current probability
9%
24h
+0.5%
7d
+0.5%
volume
$59K
Closing date
Apr 1, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi