Politics
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1.8%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑0.3% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 1.8% probability of this happening.
Current probability
1.8%
24h
+0.3%
7d
+0.3%
volume
$10.9M
Closing date
Nov 8, 2028
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi