Politics
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
55%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑19.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 55% probability of this happening.
Current probability
55%
24h
+17.5%
7d
+19%
volume
$61K
Closing date
Nov 8, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi