Politics
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
57%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑14.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 57% probability of this happening.
Current probability
57%
24h
+10.5%
7d
+14.5%
volume
$55K
Closing date
Nov 8, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi