Politics
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
13%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑6.1% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 13% probability of this happening.
Current probability
13%
24h
+4.7%
7d
+6.1%
volume
$59K
Closing date
Nov 4, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi