World
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
9.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑5.0% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 9.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
9.5%
24h
+5%
7d
+5%
volume
$94K
Closing date
Jan 1, 2027
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi