World
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?
98.7%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑3.2% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 98.7% probability of this happening.
Current probability
98.7%
24h
-0.1%
7d
+3.2%
volume
$58K
Closing date
Oct 21, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi