World
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?
84.5%
Market thinks YES
Predly estimate · Weighted by traded volume and market depth across platforms.
↑2.5% this week
30 days agoToday
Why did this change?
Get a plain-language summary of how this probability has moved recently.
Based on current prediction-market prices, the market estimates a 84.5% probability of this happening.
Current probability
84.5%
24h
+2.5%
7d
+2.5%
volume
$173K
Closing date
Nov 9, 2026
Live data from Polymarket and Kalshi